With the calendar now flipped from October to November, the market is entering its “Best 6 Months.”

The “Best 6 Months” tendency was first published by Yale Hirsch, founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, in 1986. The concept behind the “Best 6 Months” is simple. Hirsch’s research suggests that over the last several decades, the market has made a massive portion of its gains between November and April. During the remaining six months, it has generally struggled to make headway. Since Hirsch first published his research, the edge has persisted, with the “Best 6 Months” continuing to outperform the “Worst 6 Months.”

Another bit of good news is that the market is shifting into the third year of the presidential cycle. At Quantifiable Edges, I measure the presidential cycle years from November through October rather than January through December. That lets the cycle years better align with elections, which take place in early November. Although elections are always held during the first week of November, I start the cycle year on Nov. 1. This makes it easy to evaluate when combining it with the “Best 6 Months” cycles. In general, the third year of the presidential cycle has been a strong one.

When the “Best 6 Months” and the third year of the presidential cycle have been active at the same time, the results since 1950 have been outstanding. The following table notes each instance.

Click to enlarge

Sources: Quantifiable Edges​

All 19 instances since 1950 have shown gains.

Of course, drawdowns have occurred along the way. The 1974–1975 period saw SPX pull back 13.2% from its October close before finishing April 18.1% above it. In 2018–2019, the Index fell 13.5% from its October close before finishing April 8.6% above it.

But overall, the stats have been incredibly lopsided. The average full six-month period saw a net gain of 14.79% and a median gain of 15.24%. Long-term seasonality does not get any better.

This is an edited version of an article that was first published by Quantifiable Edges on Oct. 25, 2026.

Quantifiable Edges offers additional information about these indicators and others through its Market Dynamics course and with its annual gold subscription.​

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and the sources cited and do not necessarily represent the views of Proactive Advisor Magazine. This material is presented for educational purposes only.