Last week, the U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released the first look at Q2 2023 GDP for the U.S., reporting,
In addition to surpassing the first quarter’s GDP growth rate, the preliminary estimate was also above forecasts that ranged from 1.8% to 2.0% estimated growth.
FIGURE 1: REAL GDP—% CHANGE FROM PRECEDING QUARTER
Note: Seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
In analyzing the report, CNBC wrote,
FIGURE 2: UNITED STATES NONFARM PAYROLLS GROWTH
Sources: Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Will economic growth continue throughout 2023?
Despite the positives in the GDP report, Barron’s recently pointed to some discouraging signs:
FIGURE 3: DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME, OUTLAYS, AND SAVING
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, seasonally adjusted
On July 12, before the Q2 GDP report, The Conference Board published a fairly pessimistic outlook for the remainder of 2023, and even more negative for 2024, saying,
On a more positive note, The Conference Board’s chief economist Dana Peterson reported,
FIGURE 4: CONFERENCE BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
Note: Shaded areas represent periods of recession.
Sources: The Conference Board, NBER
That said, The Conference Board’s widely followed Leading Economic Index remains in a significant downtrend, according to the latest release of data on July 20:
FIGURE 5: NEGATIVE GROWTH RATE OF THE LEI SIGNALS CONTINUED SLOWING IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Sources: The Conference Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and the sources cited and do not necessarily represent the views of Proactive Advisor Magazine. This material is presented for educational purposes only.