According to MarketWatch on July 30,
Sources: MarketWatch, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The Trump administration has made frequent references to Q3 2020 being a largely positive “transitional” quarter and has high hopes for signs of solid economic recovery in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021.
How does that line up with analyst estimates?
The same MarketWatch article said,
Reporting by Business Insider on Goldman Sachs’ growth forecasts included the following assessment in July:
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a weekly forecast for U.S. GDP based on the latest economic data points. The forecast from August 7 said,
Note: SAAR refers to seasonally adjusted annual rate. The Atlanta Fed offers this disclaimer: “There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. … The GDPNow forecast is constructed by aggregating statistical model forecasts of 13 subcomponents that comprise GDP.”
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts
On July 31, Barron’s published an article questioning the relevance of GDP figures during a period of such unprecedented upheaval, stating,
Barron’s points out that several analysts feel real-time, high-frequency indicators are far more important than backward-looking GDP figures. One such indicator is the New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI), a basket of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity that includes jobless claims and fuel sales.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Barron’s says for this measure of the economy,
Trading Economics has published an outlook for the next few quarters, reflecting the consensus call for a very strong statistical rebound in Q3, a much lower increase in Q4, and modest growth in the first half of 2021. The outlook states,
Sources: Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
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