Canaccord Genuity strategist Tony Dwyer wrote early this week,
Sources: Bloomberg, Canaccord Genuity
U.S. equity markets have recently seemed to be in enthusiastic agreement with this assessment. The S&P 500 briefly entered positive territory for the year on Monday, July 13, before a significant intraday reversal.
FIGURE 2: S&P 500 PERFORMANCE (PAST 12 MONTHS)
Source: MarketWatch, data as of 7/13/20
Several sources provide some insight into this issue.
The New York Times Dealbook reported this week that the surge of the past few weeks in U.S. coronavirus cases, and challenges in testing and procuring medical equipment, may help stall the economic comeback, adding,
FIGURE 3: WHAT WOULD YOU DO WITH AN UNEXPECTED WINDFALL?
Sources: Bloomberg, YouGov
The same YouGov survey found that while most Americans see their financial situation about the same as a month ago, more people see deterioration in their personal financial outlook than those seeing improvement.
FIGURE 4: HOW HAS YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION CHANGED VS. LAST MONTH?
Sources: Bloomberg, YouGov
The final June measurement of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment shows the impact of regional spikes in coronavirus cases, with the Northeast continuing to rebound and other areas (especially the South) flattening out. (Note: The survey research was conducted before July’s continued surge in cases.)
FIGURE 5: UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN INDEX OF CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Source: University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, June 2020.
Richard Curtin, chief economist for the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, reported,
Source: University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, June 2020
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