Active investment management’s weekly magazine for fee-based advisors

How I See It
Market commentary provided by well-known technical and research analysts, financial authors, investment newsletter publishers, and economists. The opinions expressed each week represent their professional perspectives and not necessarily those of the magazine.

The dollar’s 8-year cycle

The U.S. Dollar Index is climbing up to its highest level since 2002, which is getting a lot of currency traders excited. U.S. manufacturers are a lot less excited. A more valuable dollar makes it harder to sell products overseas. FIGURE 1: LONG-TERM...

Judge recession risks for yourself

Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, recently announced that the chances of recession are not elevated. Of course, he has access to more data than we do, plus he is an experienced economist. However, we recall that it was not that long ago that...

Our favored yield curve does not signal recession

Editor’s note: Tony Dwyer, U.S. portfolio strategist for Canaccord Genuity, and his colleagues author a widely respected monthly overview of economic and market conditions, technical factors, and future market outlook called the “Strategy Picture Book.”...

Investors Intelligence data nearing parity

In the latest survey from Investors Intelligence, bulls have fallen to 32.2%, and bears are at 31.0%. That is the lowest bull-bear spread since the COVID crash in March 2020. This is pretty significant because the average bull-bear spread since 2006 is...