The coverage in the financial press about round one of France’s presidential election has been exhaustive—and for good reason.
A potential win by right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen was viewed by many as having the capability to bring down the common currency and the European Union itself.
According to Julia Coronado of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a Bloomberg radio guest on Monday, the election results and subsequent polling for the May 7 final election meant that “a huge tail risk was taken off the table for Europe.”
About two months ago, Proactive Advisor Magazine previewed some of the French election issues. That article quoted observations from a Forbes piece penned by Katina Stefanova, the CEO and CIO of Marto Capital, who has an impressive international investment management resume. She gave a thumbnail sketch of Le Pen as follows:
Statista published the following poll data shortly after Sunday’s election, along with commentary:
MACRON HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN THE SECOND ROUND
Second-round voting intention in the French presidential election
Ms. Le Pen announced Monday that she would be “temporarily” stepping down as head of France’s National Front party. According to Fox News, Le Pen said on French public television, “Tonight, I am no longer the president of the National Front. I am the presidential candidate. … I have always considered that the president of the republic is the president of all French people.”
Bespoke Investment Group wrote early this week of the May 7 election outlook:
Bespoke also pointed out that Monday’s rally in France’s equity markets was huge, as post-election positive sentiment surged. “The CAC 40 is having its best day since June 2012, up 4.6%; it’s at 52-week highs and has just broken out across 20-year resistance.” They also note, however, that Europe still faces this fall’s vote in Germany and continued political turbulence in Washington—France’s market breakout still has some headwinds to contend with.
FRANCE’S CAC 40 INDEX BREAKS 20-YEAR RESISTANCE