The Conference Board reported last week that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 1% in January to 108.1, following a 0.6% increase in December and a 0.4% increase in November.
Its press release stated,
FIGURE 1: LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX AND COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDEX
(THROUGH JANUARY 2018)
The Conference Board notes that its leading, coincident, and lagging composite indexes are “the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle.”
Barron’s analysis of the latest report showed that January’s 1% gain was well above the consensus estimate for a 0.6% increase. It stated on the day of the data release,
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index also provided some positive news last week.
According to Bloomberg’s summary of the data through February 18, 2018,
FIGURE 2: ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS AMONG U.S. CONSUMERS