Terrorism: the economic cost and global risk

Our heartfelt thoughts and prayers go out to the Orlando community in the wake of the senseless killings this past weekend.

Said Orlando’s mayor Buddy Dyer in an interview with CNN on Monday morning, “This was the most horrific day in the history of Orlando. … My job now is to support my community, the victims and families of victims, and all of our first responders.”

One thing is certain—the issue of fighting terrorism in all of it many forms will become one of the defining issues of the upcoming presidential contest. A recent poll from Gallup shows the strong level of concern on the part of American citizens. From data analytics firm Statista:

“A Gallup survey conducted earlier this year reveals that Americans still consider international terrorism the top threat to their nation. 79 percent of respondents identified international terrorism as a critical threat, with Iran’s nuclear weapons program in second place despite last year’s deal. Interestingly, a new and more modern threat appears in third place. This was the first year where Gallup asked people about the threat from cyberterrorism, and 73 percent of them considered it a critical threat. This chart shows the most critical threats to the U.S. over the next decade, as cited by U.S. adults in 2016.”

AMERICANS SAY TERRORISM IS THE TOP THREAT TO THEIR NATION

The most critical threats to the U.S. over the next decade, as cited by U.S. adults in 2016

The question remains whether dealing with the issues of terrorism and violence in the United States can rise above partisan posturing during this election season and beyond. Gallup’s concluding thoughts from its “Critical Threats” survey in February provide a small ray of optimism on this front:

“Given the spate of news on the fronts of international terrorism, cyberterrorism and nuclear weapons negotiations with Iran, it’s perhaps unsurprising that these issues are at the forefront of Americans’ concerns about potential threats to the U.S. over the next 10 years. …

“Of course, Republicans and Democrats often don’t agree about what constitutes a ‘critical’ threat to the vital interests of the U.S. Still, for lawmakers, Americans’ widespread agreement on issues such as cyberterrorism and infectious diseases may provide a welcome opening for bipartisan agreement and progress on issues whose importance has broad public consensus.”

Gallup also tells us, however, that Americans’ confidence in key U.S. institutions remains near historical lows since the beginning of their tracking study in 1993. It would be gratifying to see these perceptions turn around for solid and justifiable reasons over the coming years.

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AVERAGE CONFIDENCE RATING FOR ALL INSTITUTIONS, 1993–2016

Average percentage of Americans who have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence

Average is based on 14 institutions asked about annually since 1993.

While incidents of terrorism are exactly that, striking fear in the hearts of citizens around the world, they also carry a high and growing economic cost. Analysis from Statista shows how these costs first peaked with 9/11 in the U.S., subsided dramatically in the years just after, and have since been on a steady track higher. While data is not available in this analysis for 2015, it would not be surprising to see that figure exceed 2014’s level.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC COSTS OF TERRORISM, 2000–2014

Terrorism top security concern for Americans